A judgment call now costs a fraction of a cent. Are the probabilities any good?
Single-pass scorers easily beat generative models on latency, but the test that decides adoption is calibration against a small fine-tuned classifier.
The products in this cohort share a label and not much else. Microsoft-Decision-1 is a post-trained Qwen3.5-9B with a 32,768-token context, offered only as a hosted service on Foundry and OpenRouter. Liquid's d1-3B is the one open-weight option that runs locally, and Liquid reports 16 ms for a single question on a Jetson AGX Thor. SubQ Snap, announced Oct 12, accepts up to 384K tokens of text and images, per Turing Post. TypeSafe raised an $870M Series A at a $7.5B valuation, led by Andreessen Horowitz with Sequoia and DCVC, as Fortune's Term Sheet reports. That valuation precedes any published calibration data.
| Model | Access | Reported speed | Price | Calibration evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft-Decision-1 | Hosted only (Foundry, OpenRouter) | 85ms p50, 125ms p95 (latency comparison disputed by H2O.ai) | $0.042/M input, free output | 92.2 vs 93.1 for Quyet-1.0-Large |
| Liquid d1-3B | Open weights, local | 16 ms per question on Jetson AGX Thor | Not reported | Not reported |
| SubQ Snap | Announced Oct 12 | ~100K tokens in about a second | $0.05/M input, no output charge | Not reported |
What the 83.5% is compared against
Microsoft reports 83.5% average accuracy across 36 benchmarks, against 81.9% for Quyet-1.0-Large, per AI Breakfast, and publishes the averages without confidence intervals. A 1.6-point edge averaged over 36 different tasks is hard to interpret until per-task variance is available. The speed headline is a 35x lower median latency, measured against GPT-6 Sol, a generative frontier model, per Turing Post. H2O.ai disputes those figures using its own JevBench-adjusted medians.
Beating a token-generating model on latency is the easy comparison. A fair comparison would include a fine-tuned small classifier and logit scoring over the candidate answers on a small open model. Logit scoring reads the model's raw score for each answer instead of letting it generate one. Neither arm appears in any vendor table.
A constraint-solving result has the same shape. Logical Intelligence says Kona, an energy-based model about 1000x smaller than frontier LLMs, solved 96.2% of Sudoku puzzles for $4 of GPU time, while a five-model LLM panel solved 2% for about $11,000, as ByteByteGo recounts. A valid version would report the puzzle count and include an exact-solver baseline. In our view, it supports a small specialist plus an exact verifier over a zero-shot generalist on problems whose answers can be checked. Without a same-size non-energy-based control, the result cannot be credited to the energy-based architecture.
Cheap inference moves the bottleneck to labels
Simplifying AI covers a Jev/TypeSafe triage tutorial that quotes the same price: $0.042 per million input tokens, with free output. At that rate a $5 signup credit buys roughly 119M input tokens. With inference near-free, the cost that remains is producing enough reviewed labels to know whether the outputs are right. The tutorial's protocol develops on 12 reviewed emails and holds out 8 fresh ones. A perfect 8 out of 8 on that holdout still carries a 95% exact lower bound near 63% accuracy.
A decision model is only cheaper than your LLM judge if its probabilities mean what they say on your data.
The move
Pick one routing, triage or judging call that already runs through an LLM. On a few hundred labeled items with a frozen holdout, compare three arms: the incumbent LLM judge, a decision model and a fine-tuned small classifier. Where data cannot leave the organization's boundary, Liquid d1-3B covers the decision-model arm. Report accuracy, ECE (expected calibration error, the gap between stated confidence and observed accuracy) and Brier score, before and after temperature scaling. Measure p95 latency under in-house concurrency rather than the quoted figure. For outputs with hard constraints, such as schedules or configs, test an exact solver and an LLM-plus-verifier retry loop before anything learned.
What to do
Run a three-arm spike this sprint on one existing LLM routing or judging call: incumbent LLM judge vs Decision-1 or Liquid d1-3B vs a fine-tuned small classifier. Report accuracy, ECE and Brier before and after temperature scaling, plus p95 latency under your own load.
Build a baseline ladder this quarter for one hard-constrained output you ship (schedule, allocation or config): OR-Tools CP-SAT, LLM one-shot, LLM plus exact-verifier retry loop, and a small task-trained model. Report cost per verified solution and p50/p95 latency.